Colloquium at the Mathematical Sciences with Tom Britton
Uppladdad av Philip Gerlee on 2020-4-21
“Mathematical modelling of infectious disease outbreaks like covid-19”Abstract:
Mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases are used to:
better understand spreading mechanisms, determine if a big outbreak is
likely to occur and how big it will be, determine if a disease will
become endemic, and investigate how various preventive measures can
reduce spreading hopefully preventing a major pandemic outbreak or make
an endemic disease vanish. Making inference is harder than usual in that
the basic events, transmissions, are rarely observed but instead proxies
like onset of symptoms are recorded, and also by the fact that these
events are dependent rather than independent (as is usually the case).
In the talk I will give an overview of the area with particular focus on
emerging outbreaks, including illustrations from the current coronavirus outbreak.